朋友们，我见过 AI 泡沫的很多种形态，但今天这个，真的给我整笑了。
6 月 15 日，卖青梅零食的溜溜梅在港交所挂牌上市。首日收盘暴涨 193%，市值突破百亿港元，PE 高达 51 倍。作为对比：全球零食行业长期估值中枢是 15-20 倍 PE，卫龙 PE 22 倍，洽洽 PE 18 倍。
一个卖梅子的，凭什么享受 AI 公司的估值？
因为它的股票简称叫——LLM。
是的，就是你想的那个 LLM
Large Language Model，大语言模型，AI 领域最火的概念，没有之一。
溜溜梅本来叫"溜溜果园"，上市前不知道哪位天才灵机一动，把股票简称改成了"LLM"。你别说，还挺巧："溜"的拼音首字母是 L，"梅"的拼音首字母是 M——等等，中间那个 L 哪来的？不管了，总之就是 LLM。
然后散户们疯了。
打新群里有人发现这个彩蛋，截图一传十十传百，大量不明就里的投资者以为这是 AI 概念股，跟风买入。公开发售获 6586 倍超额认购——超过了蜜雪冰城此前保持的 5258 倍纪录。6586 倍啊朋友们，什么概念？1 块钱的股票，6586 块钱在抢。
更绝的是：这 6586 倍认购里，99% 来自散户。机构投资者的国际配售只获得了 2.64 倍认购——机构又不傻，谁不知道 LLM 是卖梅子的？
"建议所有想上市的公司赶紧改名：卖火锅的改叫 GPT，卖奶茶的改叫 AGI，卖鸭脖的改叫 MoE。保证首日翻倍。"
—— 某投行朋友朋友圈
更荒诞的还在后面
你以为这就是极限了？天真。
首日实际可交易的流通股只有约 807 万股，占发行量的极小比例。这意味着什么？典型的"货源归边式流动性挤压"——大部分筹码在少数人手里，市面上流通的很少，少量买单就能把价格拉上天。
然后你猜怎么着？溜溜梅创始人跟投资方签了对赌协议，最后上市期限就是 2026 年 6 月 30 日。挂牌那天是 6 月 15 日，距离截止日只剩 15 天——这哪是上市，这是卡点交作业。
一家卖梅子的公司，在对赌期限的最后半个月，把股票简称改成 AI 圈最火的缩写，在散户的狂热中以 51 倍 PE 挂牌，首日暴涨 193%。这剧情，编剧都不敢这么写。
历史不会重复，但会押韵
港股老司机看到这应该已经开始笑了。
过去三年，同类情绪驱动的新股——IFBH、铜师傅等等——上市后 3 个月平均回撤 45-55%，6 个月回撤 60-70%。为什么？因为情绪溢价来得快，去得更快。当散户发现手里的 LLM 不是大语言模型而是大梅子蜜饯，潮水退去时才知道谁在裸泳。
12 月首批解禁、8 月中报——这两个时间节点将是估值修正的关键时刻。到时候 LLM 到底是 Large Language Model 还是 Liu Liu Mei，市场会给出答案。
但说真的，这怪谁呢？
你可以骂散户蠢，但散户只是在按照市场给的信号行动：当所有叫 AI 的公司都涨，当 LLM 这个词每天出现在头条上，当你打开炒股群大家都在聊大模型——看到一只叫 LLM 的股票，你会不会也手痒点一下"买入"？
这才是真正值得槽的地方：AI 泡沫已经到了这种程度——一家卖零食的公司，只要名字起得巧，就能享受 AI 估值。这不是溜溜梅的问题，这是整个市场对 AI 概念的饥渴已经到了饥不择食的地步。
最后给各位一个投资建议：下次看到名字像 AI 的股票，先点进去看看它是干嘛的。万一它是卖梅子的呢？
哦对了，溜溜梅真的挺好吃的。就是不知道买了股票的股民，吃着手里的梅子，心里是什么滋味。
今天就槽到这里，明天继续。
Friends, I've seen many forms of AI bubbles, but today's one truly made me laugh.
On June 15, green plum snack company Liu Liu Mei listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It surged 193% at close on debut, breaking 10 billion HKD market cap, with PE as high as 51x. For comparison: the global snack industry's long-term valuation center is 15-20x PE; Weilong PE is 22x; Qiaqia PE is 18x.
A plum-selling company -- on what basis does it enjoy AI company valuations?
Because its stock abbreviation is -- LLM.
Yes, That LLM You're Thinking Of
Large Language Model, the hottest concept in AI, bar none.
Liu Liu Mei was originally called "Liu Liu Guo Yuan" (Liu Liu Orchard); before listing, some genius had a brainwave and changed the stock abbreviation to "LLM." You know what, it's kind of a coincidence: "Liu" starts with L, "Mei" starts with M -- wait, where does the middle L come from? Never mind, the point is, it's LLM.
Then retail investors went wild.
Someone in IPO subscription groups discovered this easter egg; screenshots spread like wildfire; masses of clueless investors thought this was an AI concept stock and bought in. The public offering saw 6,586x oversubscription -- surpassing Mixue Bingcheng's previous record of 5,258x. 6,586x, friends -- what does that mean? 1 RMB of stock, with 6,586 RMB chasing it.
Even better: of those 6,586x subscriptions, 99% came from retail investors. Institutional investors' international placement only saw 2.64x subscription -- institutions aren't stupid; who doesn't know LLM sells plums?
"Suggestion for all companies wanting to go public: hurry up and rename. Hot pot places become GPT, bubble tea shops become AGI, duck neck shops become MoE. Guaranteed to double on day one."
-- An investment banker friend's WeChat Moments
The Absurdity Doesn't End There
You think that's the limit? Naive.
Actual tradeable float on debut was only about 8.07 million shares, a tiny fraction of issued shares. What does that mean? A classic "cornered supply liquidity squeeze" -- most chips in few hands, minimal float on the market; small buy orders can rocket the price.
Then guess what? Liu Liu Mei's founder signed a VAM agreement with investors with a final listing deadline of June 30, 2026. Listing day was June 15 -- only 15 days before the deadline. That's not a listing; that's turning in homework at the deadline.
A plum-selling company, in the final half-month before its VAM deadline, renames its stock ticker to the hottest acronym in AI circles, lists at 51x PE amid retail frenzy, and surges 193% on day one. Even screenwriters wouldn't dare write this plot.
History Doesn't Repeat, But It Rhymes
HKEX veterans should already be laughing at this point.
Over the past three years, similar sentiment-driven new stocks -- IFBH, Tongshifu, etc. -- averaged 45-55% drawdowns within 3 months of listing, and 60-70% drawdowns in 6 months. Why? Because sentiment premiums come fast and go faster. When retail investors discover their LLM isn't Large Language Model but Large Liu Liu Mei plum preserves, you only know who's been swimming naked when the tide goes out.
The first lock-up expiry in December and interim results in August -- these two time points will be critical moments for valuation correction. By then, whether LLM is Large Language Model or Liu Liu Mei, the market will give its answer.
But Honestly, Who's to Blame?
You can call retail investors stupid, but retail investors are just acting on signals the market gives: when every company called AI goes up, when the term LLM appears in headlines every day, when you open stock groups and everyone's discussing LLMs -- seeing a stock called LLM, wouldn't you also feel the itch to click "buy"?
That's what's truly worth roasting here: the AI bubble has reached the point where a snack company, just by picking a clever name, can enjoy AI valuations. This isn't Liu Liu Mei's problem; it's that the entire market's hunger for AI concepts has reached the point of eating anything.
One investment tip for you all: next time you see a stock that sounds like AI, click in and check what it actually does. What if it sells plums?
Oh, and by the way, Liu Liu Mei plums really are quite tasty. Just wonder how the shareholders who bought the stock feel as they eat the plums in their hands.
That's all the roasting for today; more tomorrow.
Sources · 信源 Sources
- 香港交易所 (HKEX) - 溜溜梅（LLM）上市披露与交易数据
- 港交所披露易 - 溜溜果园集团招股书与公开发售结果
- 雪球/富途 - LLM 新股认购与首日交易行情数据
- 东方财富网 - 港股新股破发与情绪炒作专题分析
本文基于 Dawn Vision 认知引擎处理的公开市场信息整理，经编辑部人工审核。素材来源包括：港交所披露信息、溜溜梅招股书、新股认购数据、历史新股表现统计。本文不构成任何投资建议。
Compiled from public market information processed by Dawn Vision's cognitive engine, editorially reviewed. Sources include: HKEX disclosures, Liu Liu Mei prospectus, IPO subscription data, historical new stock performance statistics. This article does not constitute any investment advice.
